Modeling the risk of an emerging pathogen entering the Canadian blood supply
Identifieur interne : 002775 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002774; suivant : 002776Modeling the risk of an emerging pathogen entering the Canadian blood supply
Auteurs : Steven Kleinman [Canada] ; Claire Cameron [Canada] ; Brian Custer [Canada] ; Michael Busch [Canada] ; Louis Katz [Canada] ; Boris Kralj [Canada] ; Ian Matheson [Canada] ; Ken Murphy [Canada] ; Jutta Preiksaitis [Canada] ; Dana Devine [Canada]Source :
- Transfusion [ 0041-1132 ] ; 2010-12.
English descriptors
- Teeft :
- Actual rate, Acute agent, Acute infection, Acute manifestation, Annual number, Apheresis plts, Blood collection, Blood component, Blood component type, Blood components, Blood donor, Blood donors, Blood services, Blood supply, Blood system, Blood transfusion, British columbia, Canadian blood services, Canadian blood supply, Canadian dollars, Canadian transfusion recipients, Chikungunya virus, Chronic agent, Chronic agents, Chronic infection, Cihi, Cihi data, Cihi database, Collections data, Combination drug therapy, Component type, Current model, Data review, Data sources, Database, Database study, December, Dengue virus, Different combinations, Disease severity, Donation, Donor, Donor exposures, Donor population, Drug therapy, Error bars, Expert panel, Fiscal years, Frequency distributions, Frequency module, Funding, Geographic locations, Health canada, Health care costs, Health economics, Health information, High degree, Hospital admission, Hospital reports, Human virus, Infection, Infectious agents, Infectious disease data, Initial introduction, Input distributions, Insurance coverage, Insurance professionals, International data, Kleinman, Krever commission, Large number, Likely estimate, Likely value, Management consultants, Mathematical models, Medical care costs, Medical costs, Medical outcomes, Minimum accumulation, Model output, Model variables, Modeling, Modeling exercise, Module, Morbidity, Ontario, Other blood services, Other types, Pathogen, Pathogen reduction, Pathogen risk, Personal communication, Plts, Point estimate, Positive marker rate, Prevalence, Primary infections, Public health surveillance, Rbc, Recipient, Recipient morbidity, Recipient survival, Reunion island, Risk management, Risk management process, Risk period, Saskatchewan, Scandat data, Scenario, Secondary transmission, Severity distributions, Severity simulation model, Sexual partner, Sexual partners, Similar methods, Simulation, Simulation modeling, Small percentage, Subsequent years, Surrogate tests, Survival data, Test recipients, Time frame, Time interval, Transfusion, Transfusion episode, Transfusion recipients, Transfusion volume, Transmission rate, Triangular distribution, Unpublished data, Viremia, West nile virus, Whole blood, Whole buffy coat plts, Years years.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: As part of its risk management process, Canadian Blood Services (CBS) constructed mathematical models of how newly emerging pathogens might affect blood transfusion recipients. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: CBS convened an expert panel including medical, health economics, analytical, risk management, and insurance professionals to examine multiple data sources. The model for emerging pathogen risk included separate modules to calculate the frequency and severity of infections from transfusion‐transmitted agents that could cause either acute transient or chronic persistent infection. Important model input variables were annual number of components transfused, the presumed incidence and prevalence of a new agent, the time interval of recipient risk, recipient age and sex, projected recipient survival, rate of secondary infection, pathogen‐induced morbidity, and the associated medical costs of such morbidity. RESULTS: In the 5‐year time frame considered in the model, it was estimated that approximately 3500 recipient infections (two‐SD range of 0 to 11,370 infections) could occur from an emerging pathogen that establishes a chronic infection in donors, with 60% of these due to red blood cell transfusion. The medical costs associated with recipient outcomes due to a catastrophic emerging pathogen could be lowered by 20% if an effective pathogen reduction method for either platelets or plasma were in place. CONCLUSION: This modeling exercise offers a framework for other blood services to construct similar models. It also provides a useful way to model the implementation of new blood safety interventions (e.g., pathogen reduction) on emerging pathogen risk.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/j.1537-2995.2010.02724.x
Affiliations:
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Kralj</name></author><author><name sortKey="Matheson, Ian" sort="Matheson, Ian" uniqKey="Matheson I" first="Ian" last="Matheson">Ian Matheson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Murphy, Ken" sort="Murphy, Ken" uniqKey="Murphy K" first="Ken" last="Murphy">Ken Murphy</name></author><author><name sortKey="Preiksaitis, Jutta" sort="Preiksaitis, Jutta" uniqKey="Preiksaitis J" first="Jutta" last="Preiksaitis">Jutta Preiksaitis</name></author><author><name sortKey="Devine, Dana" sort="Devine, Dana" uniqKey="Devine D" first="Dana" last="Devine">Dana Devine</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:108AE28BB67C4F80EFAF19244219807D59122ADD</idno><date when="2010" year="2010">2010</date><idno type="doi">10.1111/j.1537-2995.2010.02724.x</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/WNG-HWB53287-N/fulltext.pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">001774</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" 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Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cameron, Claire" sort="Cameron, Claire" uniqKey="Cameron C" first="Claire" last="Cameron">Claire Cameron</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Custer, Brian" sort="Custer, Brian" uniqKey="Custer B" first="Brian" last="Custer">Brian Custer</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Busch, Michael" sort="Busch, Michael" uniqKey="Busch M" first="Michael" last="Busch">Michael Busch</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Katz, Louis" sort="Katz, Louis" uniqKey="Katz L" first="Louis" last="Katz">Louis Katz</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kralj, Boris" sort="Kralj, Boris" uniqKey="Kralj B" first="Boris" last="Kralj">Boris Kralj</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Matheson, Ian" sort="Matheson, Ian" uniqKey="Matheson I" first="Ian" last="Matheson">Ian Matheson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Murphy, Ken" sort="Murphy, Ken" uniqKey="Murphy K" first="Ken" last="Murphy">Ken Murphy</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Preiksaitis, Jutta" sort="Preiksaitis, Jutta" uniqKey="Preiksaitis J" first="Jutta" last="Preiksaitis">Jutta Preiksaitis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Devine, Dana" sort="Devine, Dana" uniqKey="Devine D" first="Dana" last="Devine">Dana Devine</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>From the Department of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Analytics, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada; Blood Systems Research Institute and the University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; the Mississippi Valley Regional Blood Center, Davenport, Iowa; Health Economics Consultant, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the Risk Management Consultants of Canada Limited, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and the Canadian Blood Services, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Transfusion</title><title level="j" type="alt">TRANSFUSION</title><idno type="ISSN">0041-1132</idno><idno type="eISSN">1537-2995</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">50</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">12</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="2592">2592</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="2606">2606</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">15</biblScope><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Inc</publisher><pubPlace>Malden, USA</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2010-12">2010-12</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0041-1132</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0041-1132</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Actual rate</term><term>Acute agent</term><term>Acute infection</term><term>Acute manifestation</term><term>Annual number</term><term>Apheresis plts</term><term>Blood collection</term><term>Blood component</term><term>Blood component type</term><term>Blood components</term><term>Blood donor</term><term>Blood donors</term><term>Blood services</term><term>Blood supply</term><term>Blood system</term><term>Blood transfusion</term><term>British columbia</term><term>Canadian blood services</term><term>Canadian blood supply</term><term>Canadian dollars</term><term>Canadian transfusion recipients</term><term>Chikungunya virus</term><term>Chronic agent</term><term>Chronic agents</term><term>Chronic infection</term><term>Cihi</term><term>Cihi data</term><term>Cihi database</term><term>Collections data</term><term>Combination drug therapy</term><term>Component type</term><term>Current model</term><term>Data review</term><term>Data sources</term><term>Database</term><term>Database study</term><term>December</term><term>Dengue virus</term><term>Different combinations</term><term>Disease severity</term><term>Donation</term><term>Donor</term><term>Donor exposures</term><term>Donor population</term><term>Drug therapy</term><term>Error bars</term><term>Expert panel</term><term>Fiscal years</term><term>Frequency distributions</term><term>Frequency module</term><term>Funding</term><term>Geographic locations</term><term>Health canada</term><term>Health care costs</term><term>Health economics</term><term>Health information</term><term>High degree</term><term>Hospital admission</term><term>Hospital reports</term><term>Human virus</term><term>Infection</term><term>Infectious agents</term><term>Infectious disease data</term><term>Initial introduction</term><term>Input distributions</term><term>Insurance coverage</term><term>Insurance professionals</term><term>International data</term><term>Kleinman</term><term>Krever commission</term><term>Large number</term><term>Likely estimate</term><term>Likely value</term><term>Management consultants</term><term>Mathematical models</term><term>Medical care costs</term><term>Medical costs</term><term>Medical outcomes</term><term>Minimum accumulation</term><term>Model output</term><term>Model variables</term><term>Modeling</term><term>Modeling exercise</term><term>Module</term><term>Morbidity</term><term>Ontario</term><term>Other blood services</term><term>Other types</term><term>Pathogen</term><term>Pathogen reduction</term><term>Pathogen risk</term><term>Personal communication</term><term>Plts</term><term>Point estimate</term><term>Positive marker rate</term><term>Prevalence</term><term>Primary infections</term><term>Public health surveillance</term><term>Rbc</term><term>Recipient</term><term>Recipient morbidity</term><term>Recipient survival</term><term>Reunion island</term><term>Risk management</term><term>Risk management process</term><term>Risk period</term><term>Saskatchewan</term><term>Scandat data</term><term>Scenario</term><term>Secondary transmission</term><term>Severity distributions</term><term>Severity simulation model</term><term>Sexual partner</term><term>Sexual partners</term><term>Similar methods</term><term>Simulation</term><term>Simulation modeling</term><term>Small percentage</term><term>Subsequent years</term><term>Surrogate tests</term><term>Survival data</term><term>Test recipients</term><term>Time frame</term><term>Time interval</term><term>Transfusion</term><term>Transfusion episode</term><term>Transfusion recipients</term><term>Transfusion volume</term><term>Transmission rate</term><term>Triangular distribution</term><term>Unpublished data</term><term>Viremia</term><term>West nile virus</term><term>Whole blood</term><term>Whole buffy coat plts</term><term>Years years</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">BACKGROUND: As part of its risk management process, Canadian Blood Services (CBS) constructed mathematical models of how newly emerging pathogens might affect blood transfusion recipients. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: CBS convened an expert panel including medical, health economics, analytical, risk management, and insurance professionals to examine multiple data sources. The model for emerging pathogen risk included separate modules to calculate the frequency and severity of infections from transfusion‐transmitted agents that could cause either acute transient or chronic persistent infection. Important model input variables were annual number of components transfused, the presumed incidence and prevalence of a new agent, the time interval of recipient risk, recipient age and sex, projected recipient survival, rate of secondary infection, pathogen‐induced morbidity, and the associated medical costs of such morbidity. RESULTS: In the 5‐year time frame considered in the model, it was estimated that approximately 3500 recipient infections (two‐SD range of 0 to 11,370 infections) could occur from an emerging pathogen that establishes a chronic infection in donors, with 60% of these due to red blood cell transfusion. The medical costs associated with recipient outcomes due to a catastrophic emerging pathogen could be lowered by 20% if an effective pathogen reduction method for either platelets or plasma were in place. CONCLUSION: This modeling exercise offers a framework for other blood services to construct similar models. It also provides a useful way to model the implementation of new blood safety interventions (e.g., pathogen reduction) on emerging pathogen risk.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li></country></list><tree><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kleinman, Steven" sort="Kleinman, Steven" uniqKey="Kleinman S" first="Steven" last="Kleinman">Steven Kleinman</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Busch, Michael" sort="Busch, Michael" uniqKey="Busch M" first="Michael" last="Busch">Michael Busch</name><name sortKey="Cameron, Claire" sort="Cameron, Claire" uniqKey="Cameron C" first="Claire" last="Cameron">Claire Cameron</name><name sortKey="Custer, Brian" sort="Custer, Brian" uniqKey="Custer B" first="Brian" last="Custer">Brian Custer</name><name sortKey="Devine, Dana" sort="Devine, Dana" uniqKey="Devine D" first="Dana" last="Devine">Dana Devine</name><name sortKey="Katz, Louis" sort="Katz, Louis" uniqKey="Katz L" first="Louis" last="Katz">Louis Katz</name><name sortKey="Kralj, Boris" sort="Kralj, Boris" uniqKey="Kralj B" first="Boris" last="Kralj">Boris Kralj</name><name sortKey="Matheson, Ian" sort="Matheson, Ian" uniqKey="Matheson I" first="Ian" last="Matheson">Ian Matheson</name><name sortKey="Murphy, Ken" sort="Murphy, Ken" uniqKey="Murphy K" first="Ken" last="Murphy">Ken Murphy</name><name sortKey="Preiksaitis, Jutta" sort="Preiksaitis, Jutta" uniqKey="Preiksaitis J" first="Jutta" last="Preiksaitis">Jutta Preiksaitis</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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